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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.