A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
